Rate differentials

Policy rates of the eight central banks behind the major pairs, every decision since January 2025, and how all 28 pairs moved around them.

What changed lately

Rate decisions and direction changes from the last 30 days, and the decisions due in the next 30. Click a pair to chart it.

Quick guide to the terms

Interest rate differential: One currency's policy rate minus the other's, in percentage points. It is not a price gap. EUR/USD today: 2.50 (ECB) minus 3.88 (Fed) = −1.38.
Base and quote: In EUR/USD, EUR is the base (first) and USD is the quote (second). The differential is always base minus quote.
Positive or negative: Positive: the base pays more. Negative: the quote pays more. Blue and red on the board.
Expanding: The differential got bigger than it was at the start of the period. The two rates moved apart.
Contracting (squeezing): The differential got smaller. The two rates moved closer together.
Rate bias: Which way the differential leans. Bullish: the base pays more, so buying the pair earns carry. Bearish: the quote pays more. It reads rates only. It is not a price forecast.
Fading: The bias still points one way but the differential is contracting, so the reason is weakening. Shown as a hollow arrow.
Carry: Earning the differential by holding the higher-rate currency. A contracting differential shrinks that reward.
bp (basis point): 0.01 of a percentage point. A 25 bp move is a quarter point.
Cut, hike, hold: A central bank lowers, raises or leaves its policy rate at a scheduled decision.
With rates or against rates: Whether the pair's price moved the way the change in differential would suggest, or the opposite way.
Board date: The date the pair board is showing. Set it with the slider or the preset buttons.

Pairs against the rate differential

Pick up to three pairs on the board. Each cell shows the differential (base rate minus quote rate) and the rate bias: ▲ bullish, ▼ bearish. Lines on the charts mark every decision by either bank.

Window

Pair board

Each cell is base minus quote, in percentage points. Click to add or remove a pair.

Quote pays moreBase pays more

Rate bias ▲ bullish (buy the pair), ▼ bearish (sell the pair). Hollow △ ▽ means the differential is contracting, so the bias is fading. No arrow means neutral.

Daily candles

Pair

Connect a broker feed

Pick a feed: fusion-ctrader-worker.js (your Fusion Markets cTrader account) or oanda-candles-worker.js (free OANDA practice account). The setup steps are at the top of each file.
Deploy it as a Cloudflare Worker with the secrets it lists. Tokens never reach the browser.
Set RD_CONFIG.oandaProxy to the Worker URL. For Fusion also set RD_CONFIG.candleLabel to 'Fusion Markets cTrader bid prices'.

MetaTrader (MT4 or MT5) has no direct route; it needs a paid third-party relay, so the cTrader feed is the way to use your Fusion account.

Differentials: contracting and expanding

The interest rate differential is one currency's rate minus the other's. Here it is measured as a size, ignoring which side pays more. Contracting (squeezing) means the rates moved closer together over the period. Expanding means they moved apart. Click a pair to chart it below.

Since

◀ Contracting

Differential getting smaller. Biggest first.

Expanding ▶

Differential getting bigger. Biggest first.

Policy rates

Where each rate stands, what it has done since January 2025, and the next scheduled decision.

Around each decision

Price moves are measured from the daily ECB reference fixing on the decision date. That fixing is at 14:15 CET, so decisions announced later in the day (the Fed, BoC) mostly show up in the next day's number, and short windows are noisy. Read the 20-day column with that in mind.

All 28 pairs

Policy rate paths

Each line steps on the day of a decision. Turn currencies on and off to compare.

Sources and checks

The rate history is a verified table taken from each central bank's own release. Where a bank publishes a free data feed, the page re-checks the table against it every time it loads.

Spot rates are the daily ECB reference rates from Frankfurter, so each day is one fixing, not live ticks. Rates only change at scheduled decisions, so the table needs updating after each meeting. If a meeting date has passed and the table has not been re-verified, a notice appears at the top of the page.